The Rest of the World Report | Thursday, March 19, 2026

Day 20 Morning Edition

Photo by USGS on Unsplash

Weekday morning and evening editions. Saturdays once. Sundays once. All sources labeled. Translator notes on every story.

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WAR DAY 20 | NUMBERS AT PUBLICATION
🇮🇷 Iran: 1,444+ killed / 18,551+ injured (Health Ministry — FROZEN since ~Day 7. HRANA independent floor: 4,765+ through Day 14. Full toll unknown.)
🇱🇧 Lebanon: 900+ killed / 1,000,000+ displaced
🇮🇱 Israel: 19+ civilians killed — including a Thai agricultural worker killed this morning at Moshav Adanim in central Israel’s Sharon region, struck by shrapnel from an Iranian cluster munition. Iran has now fired 268+ attack waves at Israel. The Tel Aviv metro area is the primary target, absorbing nearly 39% of all Iranian salvos. Hezbollah has fired 565+ attack waves since joining on March 2. / 2 IDF / 3,600+ treated
🇺🇸 US: 13 KIA / ~200 wounded
🛢️ Brent crude: $116.38/barrel (up from ~$73 on the eve of the war) | European gas benchmark: +24% Thursday morning
💰 Dow watch: Pre-war close Feb. 27 = 48,977. Current: ~46,225. ~$2.7 trillion in US market cap erased in three weeks.

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1. THE ENERGY WAR GOES WIDE

Iran has turned its retaliation for the Israeli strike on South Pars into a coordinated assault on Gulf energy infrastructure — and the world is paying for it.

In the past 24 hours: Qatar’s Ras Laffan

Industrial City — the world’s largest LNG hub, supplying roughly 20% of global liquefied natural gas — was struck twice by Iranian ballistic missiles, causing fires and what Qatari authorities described as “extensive damage.” Kuwait’s Mina Al-Ahmadi refinery was hit by a drone, sparking a limited fire. Hours later, the nearby Mina Abdullah refinery was struck as well. Saudi Aramco’s SAMREF refinery in Yanbu — a joint venture with ExxonMobil — was hit by a drone on the Red Sea. A damage assessment is underway. In the UAE, Abu Dhabi was forced to temporarily shut down operations at its Habshan gas facility and Bab field after overnight attacks. The UK’s Maritime Trade Operations Center separately reported a vessel struck near Ras Laffan.

Brent crude hit $116.38 a barrel — up roughly 60% from the eve of the war. The Dutch TTF benchmark for European natural gas surged 24% in Thursday morning trading. Asian stock markets opened sharply lower: Japan’s Nikkei down 2.7%, South Korea’s Kospi down 2.6%.

The geography matters. Yanbu, on Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea coast, is currently the only remaining export route for any Gulf crude oil — the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, and Iran has now targeted or threatened every other outlet. Iran’s parliament speaker said Thursday that the Strait “won’t return to its pre-war status.” The IRGC, for its part, warned that if further attacks are carried out on Iranian energy sites, strikes on Gulf infrastructure “will not stop until it is completely destroyed.”

🌍 TRANSLATOR’S NOTE: Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo in Singapore, told Reuters: the conflict is “now hitting the plumbing of the global energy system” — a shift beyond the Strait of Hormuz closure alone. Qatar’s foreign ministry called the South Pars strike “a dangerous and irresponsible step.” Iran’s President Pezeshkian warned the attacks could have “uncontrollable consequences” that “could engulf the entire world.” Al Jazeera’s correspondent in Dubai reported Gulf states are trying to “bring more political pressure — not just on Iran, but also on the United States — to try to pull back from the conflict.” The question being asked from Tokyo to Singapore to Berlin is not whether this war will cause a global energy shock — it already has — but whether there is any remaining infrastructure left to protect.

🇺🇸 WHAT AMERICAN READERS NEED TO KNOW: Brent at $116 means US gas prices, already around $3.84/gallon and rising, are not at their ceiling. The Federal Reserve held rates steady Wednesday. Analysts warn the Dow could reach 45,000 if Hormuz stays closed. The world’s energy system is being disassembled in real time, and there is no plan yet for reassembling it.

Sources: Al Jazeera live (Qatar, state-funded/editorially independent); Al Jazeera Day 20 summary (Qatar, state-funded/editorially independent); Reuters/Saxo via CBS News (international wire/Singapore-based analyst); Qatar News Agency/Peninsula Qatar (Qatar, state — primary source); Times of Israel liveblog (Israel, independent); UK Maritime Trade Operations Center statement (primary source); CNBC international (international financial press)

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2. TRUMP VS. ISRAEL: THE COVER STORY BREAKS

For three weeks, the United States and Israel have presented a unified front. On Wednesday, the wall cracked — in public, on the record, and with receipts.

Israel struck South Pars, Iran’s largest natural gas field, on Wednesday without prior US consultation, according to a Truth Social post from President Trump. “The United States knew nothing about this particular attack,” Trump wrote, adding that Israel acted “out of anger.” He declared there would be “no more” Israeli strikes on South Pars.

Then, within hours, an Israeli source told CNN the strike had been carried out in coordination with the United States. Axios separately reported that Trump had been notified in advance, citing both Israeli and US sources.

The two accounts cannot both be true. One of them is a lie — and both governments know which one.

Trump’s threat to fill the gap himself was characteristically blunt: if Iran attacks Qatar again, he wrote, the US “will massively blow up the entirety of the South Pars Gas Field at an amount of strength and power that Iran has never seen or witnessed before.” Qatar, he added, was “not involved” in the Israeli strike and had been “unjustifiably and unfairly attacked.”

Israel, meanwhile, is signaling it is not done. Defense Minister Katz said Wednesday that “significant surprises” are expected on multiple fronts, and that IDF commanders have standing authorization to strike any senior Iranian figure without seeking additional approval from the political level.

🌍 TRANSLATOR’S NOTE: Al Jazeera’s Washington correspondent said the strike raises “serious questions about whether the Israelis did tell the US that they were planning to attack South Pars before the attack” — and noted that Trump’s distancing attempt was immediately contradicted by Israeli and US sources cited by the Wall Street Journal. French President Macron, following calls with the Emir of Qatar and Trump, called for an immediate moratorium on strikes targeting civilian infrastructure. German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul warned of “a crisis of the gravest order” if global supply chains continued to be disrupted. The pattern — Israel strikes, Trump disavows, US and Israeli sources immediately contradict him — has now repeated twice. European and Gulf governments are not treating this as miscommunication. They are treating it as a structural problem with Washington’s credibility.

🇺🇸 WHAT AMERICAN READERS NEED TO KNOW: The daylight between Washington and Jerusalem is the first crack in the alliance’s public posture since the war began. It matters not just diplomatically, but practically: the US is currently asking Gulf states and NATO allies for help securing the Strait of Hormuz. It is doing so while publicly contradicting its own ally about what just happened and why.

Sources: Al Jazeera (Qatar, state-funded/editorially independent) — dedicated piece “Trump attempts to distance US from Israeli strikes on key Iranian gasfield”; Wall Street Journal (US, independent — cited by Al Jazeera confirming US coordination); CNBC international (French President Macron statement; German FM Wadephul statement); Times of Israel liveblog (Israel, independent); Trump/Truth Social (primary source)

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3. THE INTELLIGENCE THAT WASN’T

America’s top intelligence official went before the Senate Wednesday and confirmed, under oath, that one of the central justifications for this war was not supported by her own agency’s assessment.

In her written testimony to the Senate Intelligence Committee, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard stated that as a result of last June’s Operation Midnight Hammer, “Iran’s nuclear enrichment program was obliterated. There has been no efforts since then to try to rebuild their enrichment capability. The entrances to the underground facilities that were bombed have been buried and shuttered with cement.”

She did not read that paragraph aloud.

When Senator Mark Warner, the committee’s Democratic vice chair, asked why, Gabbard said she “recognized that time was running long.” Warner did not accept that. “You chose to omit the parts that contradict the president,” he said.

Under further questioning from Senator Jon Ossoff, Gabbard confirmed the written assessment was accurate — yes, the program was obliterated, yes, there had been no rebuilding effort. Ossoff then asked directly: was there an imminent nuclear threat? Gabbard’s answer: “The only person who can determine what is and is not an imminent threat is the president.” She said it was “not the intelligence community’s responsibility” to make that determination.

The White House had justified the war on March 1 by citing an “imminent nuclear threat posed by the Iranian regime.” Trump told congressional leaders on March 4 that Iran had been “two weeks away” from a nuclear weapon. Steve Witkoff, his Middle East adviser, said Iran was “probably a week away from having industrial-grade bomb-making material.”

Gabbard’s written testimony — confirmed under oath — says none of that was the intelligence community’s assessment.

The IAEA said on March 3 it had “no evidence of Iran building a nuclear bomb.” The Guardian reported this week that UK national security officials had also refuted Trump’s nuclear threat framing. The Oman FM’s Economist op-ed, published the same day as Gabbard’s testimony, called the war the administration’s “greatest miscalculation” — the third major actor this week to directly contradict the stated rationale. Gabbard’s own deputy, Joe Kent, resigned Tuesday citing the same conclusion.

Also confirmed Wednesday: Trump was briefed in advance that Iran would likely close the Strait of Hormuz and strike Gulf neighbors if attacked. Gabbard declined to confirm or deny whether she communicated this to the president, citing “internal conversations.”

🌍 TRANSLATOR’S NOTE: Al Jazeera framed the testimony directly: “Gabbard’s testimony contradicts one of several justifications Trump has given for launching war with Iran.” TRT World (Turkey) noted that the omitted paragraph “challenges claims of an imminent nuclear threat that helped justify US military action” and that “if the core infrastructure has remained untouched for nearly a year, the urgency argument weakens significantly.” The IAEA said on March 3 it had “no evidence of Iran building a nuclear bomb.” The Oman FM’s Economist op-ed, published the same day as Gabbard’s testimony, called the war the administration’s “greatest miscalculation” — and the Oman FM had personally mediated the nuclear talks that were ongoing until days before the war began. Outside the United States, these are not treated as separate data points. They form a single, consistent picture that international press had been reporting since Day 1: the legal and intelligence basis for the war was not what the White House claimed. Wednesday put it on the record, under oath.

🇺🇸 WHAT AMERICAN READERS NEED TO KNOW: The imminent threat standard is not a technicality. Under US domestic law and international law, presidents can commit military force unilaterally only in cases of immediate self-defense. The intelligence community’s own director confirmed, in writing, that the threat was not imminent in the way the administration described. What that means for the war’s legal standing is a question Congress has not yet publicly answered.

Sources: Al Jazeera (Qatar, state-funded/editorially independent) — dedicated piece; TRT World (Turkey, state-funded/editorially independent); Global News Canada (Canada, independent); Foreign Policy (international policy press, independent); The Economist/Badr Albusaidi op-ed (UK, independent — primary source); IAEA/Rafael Grossi statement March 3 (primary source — international body); Gabbard written Senate testimony (primary source — US government); Wall Street Journal via Al Jazeera (US coordination confirmed)

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4. “GREATEST MISCALCULATION” — OMAN SPEAKS

The Gulf is not a passive theater anymore.

Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi published an op-ed in The Economist on Wednesday — a formal, deliberate intervention in one of the world’s most widely read policy publications — calling the Iran war the Trump administration’s “greatest miscalculation.” He wrote that Israel appeared to have “persuaded” the US it would be an easy war to win, but that to achieve Israel’s stated goals, the US would have to put troops on the ground and commit to the kind of forever war Trump had vowed to end. “America’s friends have a responsibility to tell the truth,” Albusaidi wrote. Oman’s Foreign Ministry separately condemned Iran’s attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure and called for immediate de-escalation.

Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan did not use diplomatic language. “What little trust that remained in Iran has been completely shattered,” he said, adding that “nonpolitical options” are now on the table if Iran does not halt its attacks. He warned that Riyadh and its partners “have very significant capacities and capabilities that they could bring to bear should they choose to do so.” His framing of the Ras Laffan strike was pointed: Iran had chosen to attack a neutral Gulf state, in the middle of a diplomatic meeting, in what he called a “premeditated, preplanned, preorganised” act designed to “blackmail Arab and Islamic countries.”

Qatar expelled Iran’s military and security attachés, ordering them to leave within 24 hours.

The Riyadh summit of 12 Arab and Islamic nations — Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Turkey, and the UAE — issued a joint statement condemning Iran’s strikes on civilian infrastructure, desalination plants, airports, and diplomatic facilities.

🌍 TRANSLATOR’S NOTE: The Gulf’s diplomatic posture shifted materially this week. Oman — historically Iran’s quiet back channel, the country that brokered the nuclear talks that were ongoing until days before this war began — is now publicly calling the war a mistake in a Western policy journal. Saudi Arabia is openly threatening military action. These are not rhetorical gestures. The window for a negotiated off-ramp is closing, and the Gulf states are beginning to calculate whether they will be spectators or participants.

🇺🇸 WHAT AMERICAN READERS NEED TO KNOW: The US entered this war with the implicit assumption that Gulf states would be grateful recipients of American military protection. The Oman op-ed, the Saudi ultimatum, and the 12-nation joint statement suggest a different reality: American allies in the region feel they were not consulted, were not protected, and are now being asked to absorb the consequences of a decision they did not make.

Sources: The Economist op-ed by Badr Albusaidi (UK, independent — primary source); Al Arabiya (Saudi Arabia, state-funded/editorially independent); Al Jazeera Day 20 summary (Qatar, state-funded/editorially independent); Peninsula Qatar/Qatar News Agency (Qatar, state — primary source for Riyadh summit joint statement); Euronews (pan-European, independent)

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5. NOWRUZ

Today is Nowruz — the Persian New Year, the most important holiday in the Iranian calendar. For the Islamic Republic’s entire existence, the Nowruz address from the supreme leader has been a fixture of national life — a moment when the leader speaks to the nation as a nation, not as a wartime entity or a revolutionary project.

There is no address scheduled.

Mojtaba Khamenei has not appeared publicly in 20 days — not since he was appointed supreme leader after his father’s assassination on the first day of the war. His first communication came on Day 13: a written statement read aloud by a state television anchor while a still photograph was displayed on screen. No video. No audio. No confirmation of his location or his condition. A second brief statement on Day 16 confirmed government appointments would continue unchanged and named a new military adviser — also delivered without his appearance.

Unverified reports have circulated for over a week suggesting he may have been injured in the initial strikes and transferred to Moscow for medical treatment. Trump said Sunday he had heard Khamenei “is not alive” — offering no evidence. A leaked audio recording published by The Telegraph purportedly showed a senior protocol official telling IRGC commanders that Mojtaba had narrowly survived the strike on his father’s compound, sustaining only “a minor injury to his leg.” None of this has been independently verified.

What is confirmed: on the most symbolically important day in the Iranian calendar, the Islamic Republic’s supreme leader will not speak to his people.

🌍 TRANSLATOR’S NOTE: The Persian diaspora and international Iran analysts are treating the silence as significant regardless of its cause. Nowruz is not simply a holiday — it is the moment the supreme leader speaks to the nation as a nation. Its absence this year, under bombardment, with a new and invisible leader, is being read as either evidence of physical incapacity or a calculation that any appearance risks more questions than it answers. Neither interpretation is reassuring for Tehran.

🇺🇸 WHAT AMERICAN READERS NEED TO KNOW: The Trump administration has repeatedly predicted imminent regime collapse. Twenty days in, the regime is degraded, its leadership decimated, its economy in freefall — and it is still fighting, still firing, and still, on its most important national holiday, silent rather than surrendered.

Sources: Euronews (pan-European, independent); Times of Israel liveblog (Israel, independent); NPR (US, public media/independent); Iran International (UK-based, independent Iranian outlet); Al Jazeera Day 20 summary (Qatar, state-funded/editorially independent); The Telegraph (UK, independent)

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6. THE REST OF THE WORLD ON AMERICA: KENT UNDER INVESTIGATION

Joe Kent resigned Tuesday as Director of the National Counterterrorism Center, saying Iran posed “no imminent threat” and that the war had been launched “due to pressure from Israel.” By Wednesday, he was under federal investigation.

NBC News reported that Kent is being investigated by the FBI for allegedly leaking classified information. Senior administration officials told The Guardian that before his resignation, Kent had been suspected of leaking to the press — a suspicion that led to him being cut from the presidential daily brief and removed from Iran war deliberations while still nominally in his post.

The sequence is notable: Kent is identified as a suspected leaker, removed from classified briefings, then resigns in public protest, then becomes the subject of an FBI investigation the same week his former boss testifies before Congress about the intelligence he said was being suppressed.

The White House called Kent’s resignation “a good thing.” Vice President Vance said it was “a good thing” too, if Kent didn’t support the president’s decision. Trump said Kent was “very weak on security.”

Kent, in his Tucker Carlson interview Wednesday, said that “a good deal of key decision makers were not allowed to come and express their opinion to the president” in the lead-up to the current war — in contrast to the “robust debate” that preceded the June 2025 strikes. The intelligence community’s ability to provide a “sanity check,” he said, “was largely stifled in this second iteration.”

🌍 TRANSLATOR’S NOTE: The international press is not treating Kent primarily as a leaker. They are treating him as the first senior official to put his name publicly to an account of how this war was decided — and the FBI investigation as the administration’s response to that account. The optics, globally, are not subtle.

🇺🇸 WHAT AMERICAN READERS NEED TO KNOW: An FBI investigation of a resigned intelligence official, opened in the same week his former director testified under oath that the war’s stated rationale was not supported by intelligence, is being watched closely by every government that was asked to join this coalition and declined. They are drawing their own conclusions.

Sources: NBC News (US, independent); The Guardian (UK, independent); CNN Day 19 live updates (US, independent); The New Republic (US, independent)

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WATCH LIST

🔴 Hezbollah/northern Israel — Ongoing elevated tempo. France’s foreign minister visiting Beirut today.
🔴 Energy infrastructure — IRGC has threatened to destroy Gulf energy industry entirely if further attacks on Iran occur. Yanbu is the last outlet.
🔴 Nowruz — No address as of publication. Monitor throughout the day.
🔴 Saudi military option — “Nonpolitical options on the table.” Watch for any action or escalation from Riyadh.
🔴 Hegseth/Caine press conference — 8:00 AM ET today. Watch for any announcement on Hormuz strategy, Gulf coalition, or next US military phase.
🟡 Trump vs. Israel — Watch for Israeli response to the South Pars ban and public contradiction.
🟡 West Bank — Palestinian Red Crescent reported 3 killed and 13 injured overnight in Bayt Awwa. Ongoing coverage required.
🟡 Kent FBI investigation — Active and developing.
🟡 House Intelligence Committee — Worldwide threats hearing today. Watch for additional Gabbard/Ratcliffe testimony fallout.
🟡 Diplomacy — Oman and Saudi Arabia are both signaling. Watch for any ceasefire or off-ramp signal.
🟡 Fertilizer shock — Hormuz closure = food crisis in slow motion.

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THE REST OF THE WORLD REPORT

Day 20 Morning Cheatsheet | Thursday, March 19, 2026

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STORY 1 — THE ENERGY WAR GOES WIDE

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https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/3/19/iran-war-live-qatar-saudi-energy-sites-attacked-riyadh-says-trust-gone

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/19/iran-war-what-is-happening-on-day-20-of-us-israel-attacks

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-march-19-2026/

https://www.timesofisrael.com/trump-israel-will-no-longer-hit-iran-gas-field-but-us-will-if-qatar-sites-struck-again/

https://thepeninsulaqatar.com/article/19/03/2026/gcc-arab-islamic-countries-issue-joint-statement-following-consultative-ministerial-meeting-on-iranian-aggression

https://gulfnews.com/uae/government/gcc-arab-islamic-countries-issue-joint-statement-following-ministerial-consultative-meeting-on-iranian-attacks-1.500479458

https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-israel-strike-south-pars-gas-field-trump-threat-oil-gas-prices/

https://abc7news.com/live-updates/iran-war-live-updates-israel-steps-operation-lebanon-trump-says-countries-help-strait-hormuz/18721484/

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STORY 2 — TRUMP VS. ISRAEL: THE COVER STORY BREAKS

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https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/19/trump-attempts-to-distance-us-from-israeli-strikes-on-key-iranian-gasfield

https://www.timesofisrael.com/trump-israel-will-no-longer-hit-iran-gas-field-but-us-will-if-qatar-sites-struck-again/

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/iran-war-us-israel-trump-03-19-26

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/19/iran-israel-us-war-energy-facilities-south-pars-global-reactions.html

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STORY 3 — THE INTELLIGENCE THAT WASN’T

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https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/18/us-intel-chief-gabbard-says-iran-was-not-rebuilding-enrichment-prior-to-war

https://www.trtworld.com/article/41918b92ce04

https://globalnews.ca/news/11736449/iran-war-gabbard-senate-testimony/

https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/18/tulsi-gabbard-iran-nuclear-threat-intelligence-congress-testimony/

https://rollcall.com/2026/03/18/threats-hearing-leaves-unanswered-questions-on-iran-war/

https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2026/03/18/omans-foreign-minister-on-americas-greatest-miscalculation

https://www.axios.com/2026/03/18/trump-gabbard-iran-nuclear-threat

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STORY 4 — “GREATEST MISCALCULATION” — OMAN SPEAKS

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https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2026/03/18/omans-foreign-minister-on-americas-greatest-miscalculation

https://english.alarabiya.net/News/gulf/2026/03/19/arab-islamic-top-diplomats-condemn-iran-s-deliberate-attacks-on-gcc-islamic-countries

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/19/iran-war-what-is-happening-on-day-20-of-us-israel-attacks

https://thepeninsulaqatar.com/article/19/03/2026/gcc-arab-islamic-countries-issue-joint-statement-following-consultative-ministerial-meeting-on-iranian-aggression

https://qna.org.qa/en/news/news-details?id=joint-statement-from-consultative-ministerial-meeting-of-foreign-ministers-of-the-group-of-arab-and-islamic-countries-on-iranian-aggression&date=19/03/2026

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STORY 5 — NOWRUZ

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https://www.euronews.com/2026/03/16/still-no-mojtaba-iran-war-enters-third-week-amid-leadership-crisis-as-norwuz-looms

https://www.iranintl.com/en/202603125349

https://www.timesofisrael.com/irans-new-supreme-leader-issues-fresh-statement-as-questions-linger-over-his-health/

https://www.telegraph.co.uk

https://www.iranintl.com/en/202603168540

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STORY 6 — THE REST OF THE WORLD ON AMERICA: KENT UNDER INVESTIGATION

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https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/intel-chief-gabbard-declines-say-iran-posed-imminent-threat-us-rcna264077

https://www.theguardian.com

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/iran-war-us-israel-trump-03-18-26